Unlocking the Potential: Montney's Propensity for Higher Propellant Intensities
In the world of unconventional plays, a fascinating story unfolds when we compare the Montney play in Canada with its American counterparts. ConocoPhillips, a notable operator in the industry, has been active in both arenas, and their recent shift in proppant intensity strategies has sparked intriguing questions.
ConocoPhillips' Strategic Move
ConocoPhillips, a key player in the energy sector, has been operating in the Montney play in British Columbia and several major US plays. Interestingly, until 2018, their proppant intensity values in Montney were lower than in the US plays. However, a bold move saw them drastically increase proppant intensities in Montney, surpassing their American operations. This strategic decision has led to a significant improvement in normalized production.
What makes this particularly fascinating is the potential it reveals for Montney operators. Could this be the key to unlocking higher production gains and economic benefits? Personally, I believe this is a pivotal moment for the industry, especially considering the similarities and differences between these unconventional plays.
The Unconventional Plays: A Comparative Analysis
When examining the 11 major unconventional plays, including nine in the US and two in Canada, a consistent trend emerges. Average proppant intensity has been on the rise since 2010, but the Montney play has consistently lagged in this metric. This lag could be attributed to various factors, including geomechanical considerations and the unique production strategy of Montney, which targets both gas and liquids.
What many people don't realize is that these plays share more similarities than one might expect. Despite variations in organic content, silica, and carbonate, they exhibit overlapping porosity and permeability ranges, and all show some degree of overpressure. This common ground is crucial when evaluating the potential for increased proppant intensities.
The Power of Propellant Intensification
Several US plays, such as the Permian, Appalachian, Haynesville, and Eagle Ford, have been utilizing higher proppant intensities for over a decade, resulting in significant production gains. The relationship between proppant intensity and production is not linear, as illustrated by Figure 3. As intensity increases, production growth follows a power law curve, which is a critical insight.
In my opinion, the Montney play's relatively liquids-rich nature might be a factor in the smaller production gains compared to US gas-rich plays. However, the potential for a 20% increase in normalized 12-month production volumes by raising proppant intensity to 3.5 t/m is substantial. This is where the expertise of operators like ConocoPhillips comes into play, demonstrating the economic viability of such strategies.
Addressing Uncertainties and Challenges
While the economic merits are evident, there are uncertainties to consider. The lack of Montney wells with proppant intensities comparable to their American counterparts raises questions about the accuracy of the Montney curve at higher intensity values. As more data becomes available, we may see a different relationship between proppant intensity and production for Montney.
Additionally, the Montney play's unique production strategy, where operators restrict early gas flow to maintain gas liquids rates, could be artificially lowering the 12-month volumes. If these restrictions were lifted, we might witness a more positive correlation between proppant intensity and production.
Learning from US Analogues
The extensive data from US analogues provides valuable insights. With over 150,000 wells and 30,000 using intensities above 3.5 t/m, the US plays offer a robust dataset. Given the similarities between Montney and these US plays, it's reasonable to expect that adopting similar completion techniques could enhance the economic performance of Montney wells.
One thing that immediately stands out is the potential for Montney operators to learn from their US counterparts. The success of ConocoPhillips in increasing proppant intensities and improving production should serve as a catalyst for others to explore these strategies. As the energy industry evolves, staying open to new approaches is essential for staying competitive.
Conclusion: Embracing Innovation
In conclusion, the Montney play's potential for higher proppant intensities and subsequent production gains is an exciting prospect. While uncertainties exist, the similarities between Montney and US plays suggest that there is much to gain from adopting 'US-style' completion techniques. As the industry navigates the energy transformation, embracing innovation and learning from global counterparts will be key to unlocking new opportunities and ensuring economic viability.
